Forecasts and Nowcasts | beragampengetahuan – Beragampengetahuan

CBO has released its Budget and Economic Outlook, with projections for GDP (based on data from early December). This is their GDP projection based on current law, compared to other forecasts (IMF, WSJ survey mean), and today’s GDPNow.

Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), CBO (blue), WSJ (brown), IMF (light green triangles), GDPNow (2/7/2024) (sky blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR, on log scale. Source: BEA, CBO (February),  WSJ (January), IMF (January), and Atlanta Fed (2/7), and author’s calculations.

Note that all the forecasts/projections were made or based on data before the release of 2023Q4 GDP figures.

Today’s GDPNow for Q1 reads 3.4% q/q AR.

Video of briefing, here.