Monthly
March 2026 Monthly – Marc to Market – Beragampengetahuan
March seems to be more about the unfolding of current forces driving the capital markets, rather than new forces or policies. All the G10 central banks but the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet in March, and none are likely to change policy. China formalizes its next Five-Year Plan. In the US, the Supreme Court’s […]
January 2026 Monthly – Marc to Market – Beragampengetahuan
The coming year begins under the long shadow of geopolitical tensions and the unfolding of a new transformative technology, artificial intelligence—a technology that in 2025 proved both a backbone and a fault line for the U.S. economy. The resurrection of the US Monroe Doctrine, Russia’s hybrid war in Europe and its aggressive campaign in Ukraine, […]
September 2025 Monthly – Marc to Market – Beragampengetahuan
The Federal Reserve is poised to resume its rate cutting cycle in September. Markets briefly flirted with the idea of a 50-basis point move, but sticky core inflation, a larger-than-expected jump in producer prices, and firm retail sales have settled expectations at a quarter-point cut. The Fed continues to describe policy as restrictive, so this […]
August 2025 Monthly – Marc to Market – Beragampengetahuan
(Daily commentary resumes Wednesday, August 6. Thanks for your patience.) The August lull is a myth—a mirage for those who mistake heat for inertia. As this summer advances, businesses and investors should brace for turbulence, not tranquility. A kaleidoscope of US tariffs, an escalation of Russia’s assault on Ukraine ahead of the American deadline, deceleration […]
July 2025 Monthly – Marc to Market – Beragampengetahuan
The second half of 2025 begins not with optimism, but with fatigue. The global economy is not collapsing, but it is clearly bending under strain—economic, geopolitical, and institutional. What is taking shape is not a soft landing, but something more sobering: a slower, structurally weaker cycle in a more dangerous and fragile world. Three developments […]
June 2025 Monthly – Marc to Market – Beragampengetahuan
Navigating the global economy and managing capital market volatility has always posed challenges, but the uncertainties emanating from Washington make this task exceptionally treacherous. The so-called reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 were postponed for 90 days just one week later, ostensibly to usher in a period of intensive negotiations. Yet a few weeks into […]
May 2025 Monthly – Marc to Market – Beragampengetahuan
The global economy has entered a phase of heightened uncertainty, and at the center of this instability stands the United States. In a reversal of its traditional role as a pillar of predictability and leadership, the U.S. has adopted an erratic posture—rife with sudden feints, policy reversals, and institutional strain. Nowhere is this more evident […]
April 2025 Monthly – Marc to Market – Beragampengetahuan
The world is different. After a four-year restoration of the traditional globalist US elite, a majority of the American electorate seems to have rejected it. President Trump is indeed a transformational president, and his reversal of many traditional elements of US domestic and foreign policy are triggering dramatic action in other parts of the world. […]
March 2025 Monthly – Marc to Market – Beragampengetahuan
In recent weeks, while Russia’s war on Ukraine continues and Beijing continues to harass its neighbors, the U.S. tariff threats and doubts that its defense commitments will be sustained, have emerged as the most significant challenge for businesses, investors, and policymakers. These tariffs are aimed at protecting domestic industries, forcing a re-shoring of production, and […]
February 2025 Monthly – Marc to Market – Beragampengetahuan
There is great uncertainty for investors and policymakers. The magnitude and timing of U.S. tariffs are not clear. China unveiled DeepSeek, which appears to give other advanced language model AIs a run for their money and calls into question the effectiveness of technology curbs. While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the war in the Middle East, […]