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Australia news live: consumer sentiment at 30-year low after rate hikes; China says Aukus ‘hurts peace and stability’ | Aukus – Beragampengetahuan

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Consumer sentiment remains grim as latest interest rate rise bites

Peter Hannam

Peter Hannam

Economic news out today is mostly fairly bleak, although it will likely be eclipsed by submarine coverage.

Consumers are in a funk and that dim outlook doesn’t look like brightening much as the full impact of the 350 basis-point increase in the Reserve Bank‘s interest rate won’t be felt for a while yet.

According to Westpac and the Melbourne Institute, their consumer sentiment index was unchanged at 78.5 in March, holding near its 30-year lows. It’s the second month in a row of a sub-80 reading, a back-to-back result that did not appear during either the Covid shock and the global financial crisis.

Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans said:

Runs of sub-80 reads have only been seen during the late 1980s/early 1990s recession and in the ‘banana republic’ period of concern in 1986, when the Australian dollar was in free-fall after the federal government lost its triple-A rating.

ANZ and Roy Morgan’s weekly gauge of consumer confidence, meanwhile, slumped to its lowest level since April 2020, after the RBA announced a 25bp increase in the cash rate in March.

Slightly curious numbers, though, had people with a mortgage improving their outlook although they are still the least confident of the housing cohorts. On the other hand, those who own their home outright and renters reported sharp decreases of 4.1pts and 7.9pts, respectively.

Inflation expectations also picked up in the survey.

Modestly more upbeat, though, was NAB‘s latest monthly survey of business confidence and conditions.

True, business confidence fell back below zero in February, continuing a recent period of volatility. But business conditions remained strong with little change in the elevated levels of key subcomponents including trading conditions and employment, NAB said.

The bank said:

Conditions remain elevated across industries and states, with consumer-facing sectors clustered at a high level of around +20 index points and business-facing sectors clustered around +10 index points.

Could consumers merely be grumpy but still spending regardless?

Labour-cost growth, meanwhile, picked up further from a brief low of 2.1% in December to be running at 2.8% in quarterly terms, NAB said.

NAB’s chief economist Alan Oster said:

Business conditions remained at a very high level in the history of the survey in February.

Overall, the survey confirms the ongoing resilience of the economy through the first months of 2023, though we continue to expect a more material slowdown in demand later in the year when the full effect of rate rises has passed through.

That almost sounds cheery … unless, of course, there’s fallout from failing US banks or some unhappy response from China – our biggest trade partner by far – over that much-talked about subs deal.

Updated at 23.37 EDT

Key events

Ben Doherty and Daniel Hurst have put together a fantastic explainer on the Aukus deal that is well worth a read:

Christopher Knaus

Christopher Knaus

Submarines an ‘outrageous assault on peace’, campaigners say

Anti-war campaigners have described Australia’s submarine announcement this morning as an “outrageous assault on peace”.

Dr Sue Wareham OAM, national president of the Medical Association for Prevention of War, says the decision to spend an “unimaginable” amount of $368bn on naval nuclear reactors represented “one of the lowest points in Australian democracy in living memory”.

The naval nuclear reactors for Australia, announced today, represent one of the lowest points in Australian democracy in living memory.

Unimaginable expenditure – up to $368bn – has been announced for a single weapons capability, submarines, in a decision that was made behind closed doors and is overflowing with risks, many of which have barely been acknowledged yet. They include very significant risks to health and healthcare for Australians.

Prime minister Albanese has betrayed his own people. Vulnerable Australians will suffer even more in order for such largesse to flow to the military-industrial complex.

Opposition leader Dutton has already indicated that the NDIS, a lifeline for hundreds of thousands of Australians with particular needs, might need to be attacked. Our healthcare system is in crisis in many areas.

Countless thousands of Australians have nowhere to live, and yet our biggest financial investments will be in preparing to join yet another war of choice, this beragampengetahuan between the US and China.

Updated at 00.54 EDT

Circling back to the Aukus deal, the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, has shared a photo from a meeting with the US president, Joe Biden, following the announcement earlier this morning:

Our friendship with the USA is based on shared values, shared histories and a shared commitment to peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

Great to catch up with @JoeBiden after our AUKUS announcement today to discuss the significance of our next steps. pic.twitter.com/S2UuOZaDTV

— Anthony Albanese (@AlboMP) March 14, 2023

Commentary on the deal has continued to filter through on social media this afternoon. First up we have the minister for resources, Madeleine King, speaking on jobs:

An amazing day for WA and for Brand with AUKUS affirming the role Rockingham will play in our future submarine fleet.
Over the next decade the Government will invest up to $8 billion to expand HMAS Stirling to create 3000 direct jobs. ⁦@JEChalmers⁩ ⁦@mattkeoghpic.twitter.com/8iCUZO1VF8

— Madeleine King MP (@MadeleineMHKing) March 14, 2023

Labor’s Senator Penny Wong highlighted the investment in South Australia, with the next-generation nuclear-powered submarines to be built at Osborne:

Australia’s acquisition of nuclear submarines is an unprecedented investment in our national power and in South Australia.

Labor has always stood up for SA jobs. Now, we’re delivering.

With work beginning now, our workforce, industry and economy will benefit for decades.

— Senator Penny Wong (@SenatorWong) March 14, 2023

Meanwhile, the Greens Senator Janet Rice has spoken out against the deal:

$368 billion for nuclear subs.

$254 billion in Stage 3 tax cuts for the rich.

Apparently, there’s no room in the budget to raise Jobseeker, Youth Allowance, DSP, and Age Pension above poverty payments, but there’s plenty for billionaires and the war machine.

Labor: do better.

— Janet Rice (@janet_rice) March 14, 2023

Updated at 00.47 EDT

Peter Hannam

Peter Hannam

BoM puts odds of an El Nino this year at 50:50

As flagged here earlier today, the Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed that the La Nina is over.

That was expected because the La Nina had been fading for some beragampengetahuan, and other agencies had called its end already.

What is a bit of a surprise today, though, is that BoM is shifting straight to a so-called El Nino watch:

As the bureau says, oceanic and atmospheric indicators have returned to neutral levels and are likely to remain so through this southern autumn:

“However, there are some signs that El Niño could form later in the year,” it says, in explaining the switch.

This means there is a 50% chance of an El Niño in 2023.

During El Nino years, the equatorial winds that in neutral years blow from east to west tend to stall and ever reverse. Rainfall tends to shift away from eastern Australia (and eastern Indonesia, etc). Droughts, heatwaves and bushfires become a greater risk for large parts of Australia.

As BoM is keen to underscore, “an El Niño watch is not a guarantee that El Niño will occur, rather it is an indication that some of the typical precursors of an event are currently observed”.

A pretty fair chance that @BOM_au will today declare an end to the three-peat La Nina event, matching @NOAA. Models are still pointing to the development of an El Nino later this year (though models have the annual autumn ‘predictability gap’ to clear). pic.twitter.com/HA3tCT0UvH

— @phannam@mastodon.green (@p_hannam) March 13, 2023

We still have what meteorologists call the autumn “predictability gap” to clear, reflecting the limited accuracy climate models have at this beragampengetahuan of year.

Still, the switch to a watch mode shows where those models are tilting now.

ASX plunges into red for 2023

The local share market has plunged into negative territory for the year as the turmoil from Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse in the United States continues, AAP reported earlier today.

At noon, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index had fallen 133.7 points, or 1.88%, to 6,975.1, while the All Ordinaries was down 141 points, or 1.93%, to 7,169.6.

The ASX200 tumbled to its lowest level since a 3 January selloff. It is now down one per cent since the start of the year, despite a 6.2% rally in January.

The index was also trading below its 200-day moving average, a key technical level.

Updated at 00.32 EDT

Surge of autumn heat forecast for week ahead

A strong surge of autumn heat will make its way across the country in the second half of this week and into the early part of next week, as reported by Weatherzone.

The BoM has already forecast above-average temperatures for much of western, southern and south-east Australia from Thursday.

Weatherzone has reported that a large pool of hot autumn air will extend from WA’s Pilbara region down to the coastline of western South Australia:

In those areas, maximum temperatures in excess of 44°C can be expected … That heat will then drift eastwards, with NSW in the bullseye.

Meanwhile, temperatures nearing 40C may be seen in western Sydney on both Thursday and Saturday, with temperatures expected to reach 30C or higher in the days between.

UN urges Australia to support global food security

Australia is being urged to strengthen its support for global food security and stability in the Pacific, AAP has reported.

Delegates from the United Nations’ agriculture finance agency have met foreign affairs and trade officials in Canberra.

One of the delegation’s messages was Australians should be worried about food security, both in the region and globally.

The agency’s Ron Hartman said:

The cost of living is a key concern in developed and developing countries, and the cost of food, particularly healthy, nutritious food, is as much a concern here in Australia as it is for the developing world.

We’re here to try and respond to the demand from Pacific islands and other developing member states for more support, not through the handouts type approach, but support in terms of hand-ups.

We’re motivated by the concern that we’ve got over-escalating global food insecurity and want to make sure that we’re co-ordinating and partnering with Australian stakeholders as much as possible.

The group is in the region for a conference in Fiji.

Hartman said world peace and food security were interlinked, and Australians should be aware of what’s happening in the global food space, as well as in the Pacific.

We need to be doing more. There’s almost a perfect storm at the moment that is facing the global community.

Making sure that Australian expertise, knowledge and innovation is able to benefit those countries that are either less fortunate or more impoverished is really important.

Last week, the assistant trade minister, Tim Ayres, warned against Australia taking a narrow focus when negotiating trade agreements.

He told a major agricultural conference there was a risk that less-developed nations would be ignored if their interests weren’t considered.

Updated at 00.00 EDT

Greens propose $200 vouchers to boost live music scene

Meanwhile, the NSW Greens are proposing vouchers for the state’s young people in a bid to revive the live music scene.

The Greens music spokeswoman Cate Faehrmann says young people could boost the state’s ailing live music sector if given $200 worth of vouchers, in a scheme similar to the government’s popular Dine and Discover program:

Music, arts and culture are a major driver of economic activity across NSW and for years these sectors have been treated with contempt by this government.

Under the proposal all young people aged between 18 and 25 would be given four $50 vouchers to spend on live music events. The money could be spent on any type of gig, including festivals, DJ sets or small acoustic gigs, as well as international artists.

It comes after Labor revealed data showing just 133 live music venues were still operating in NSW, after the COVID-19 pandemic and impact of lockout laws.

Creative industries took a battering during the pandemic, losing $130m in revenue, and a number of key live music venues closed for good.

There is certainly an appetite for live music in NSW and just last night, international artists Lorde, Florence and the Machine, and Bikini Kill all performed in Sydney.

– with AAP

Updated at 23.43 EDT

Announcements continuing in lead up to NSW election

NSW premier Dominic Perrottet and opposition leader Chris Minns are continuing their rounds today, pitching to voters ahead of the NSW election on March 25.

Minns was in Sydney’s southwest, announcing Labor’s plan to put 500 early childhood workers on university or diploma scholarships.

The $22 million package would provide 500 scholarships over three years of up to $25,000 for bachelor degrees or diplomas, to fund paid professional development leave and to launch a new study into childhood delivery models.

Minns said:

We know that in NSW early childhood education centres, those with diplomas or a degree is about 45 per cent – in Victoria, it’s above 60 per cent.

We’ve been speaking to the peak bodies and they regard this as an essential investment in early childhood education.

The announcement was made in the electorate of Liberal-held East Hills – the state’s most marginal electorate after Minns’ own seat of Kogarah.

Meanwhile, Perrottet announced $2m in funding for services to help those dealing with miscarriage or the heartbreak of stillbirth.

The funds would go towards over-the-phone, in-person and online services for bereaved families.

The announcement comes after Perrottet’s wife Helen revealed she had suffered three miscarriages. The mother of seven said she had been working before the first loss and there was little consideration for the “horrific” grief she felt.

She told Nine News:

They said ‘you can take a week off or whatever but you have to take sick leave. It should be bereavement leave.

– with AAP

Updated at 23.30 EDT

Benita Kolovos

Benita Kolovos

Third encephalitis virus death recorded in Victoria

Victoria has recorded its third death from the mosquito-borne Murray Valley encephalitis virus.

The health department on Tuesday confirmed the man, aged in his 70s, died earlier this month. Authorities believe he was potentially exposed to infected mosquitoes in the Shire of Campaspe, in Victoria’s north.

A spokesperson for the department sent condolences to the man’s family and urged people in affected areas to take caution:

People in areas experiencing increased mosquito activity should continue to take steps to protect themselves against mosquito bites – wearing long, loose-fitting, light-coloured clothing, using insect repellents, removing stagnant water around their home, and avoiding the outdoors when mosquitoes are observed, especially at dusk and dawn.

Murray Valley encephalitis virus and Japanese encephalitis virus in several LGAs in northern Victoria in recent months.

According to the state’s health department, most people infected with Murray Valley encephalitis virus do not have symptoms.

When they occur, symptoms may include fever, headache, nausea, vomiting and muscle aches, and in serious cases, people can develop meningitis or encephalitis.

Flooding expected to ease at Burketown

Record major flooding at Burketown in Queensland is expected to be easing, with minor flooding along the Nicholson, Gregory and Leichhardt rivers also easing.

The Queensland BoM said that showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast for the next few days along these catchment areas, but widespread significant rainfall is not expected.

Anecdotal information from Burketown suggests the river level was expected to have peaked above the 2011 record flood level of 6.78 metres on Sunday.

The river level along the Albert River at Burketown is expected to continue easing slowly over the next few days, but is likely to remain above the major flood level (6.00 m) during Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly longer.

The river level is expected to remain elevated through to at least the end of the week.

Updated at 23.20 EDT



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